National Bank Open: Duncan Chan vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

Platform comparison

Market context

Duncan Chan faces Thiago Agustin Tirante in the National Bank Open first round on outdoor hard courts in Montreal, with the market already pricing Tirante as the clear favourite. Tennis.com lists Tirante at ATP No 64 and Chan as a qualifier, while Sofascore places Chan around No 601, a rank gap that usually matters more in Masters-level main-draw matches than crowd sentiment does.[2][3]

The historical read is straightforward: there is no previous head-to-head at tour level, so traders are relying on profile rather than match-up data.[1][3] Tirante’s recent record is stronger in the aggregate, with TennisStats showing a 60.5% win rate in 2026 and 60.3% over the last 12 months, versus Chan’s 57.1% and 60.0% respectively, but Chan has at least already handled qualifying pressure in Montreal and, according to Flashscore, his win over Hugo Gaston this week was his first career match against a top-100 opponent.[1][6]

What moves this line now is mostly schedule and fitness rather than head-to-head history. Any update on whether the match keeps its August 3 slot, plus late withdrawal news from either camp, would matter because the market resolves 50-50 if it is not played or is pushed beyond the seven-day window.[2] The main on-court dependency is whether Chan can reproduce the level that got him through qualifying; if not, Tirante’s experience in ATP main draws and first-round Masters matches should keep the matchup tilted his way.[6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for National Bank Open: Duncan Chan vs Thiago Agustin Tirante. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

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How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.