Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Valentin Vacherot

Platform comparison

Market context

Raphael Collignon, currently ranked 43, faces Valentin Vacherot in the Swiss Open singles match scheduled for 17 July 2026, with the market pricing Collignon as the 56% favourite to advance. Collignon’s career record shows a 66.4% win rate overall, with a notably strong 73.4% success rate on clay courts, the surface of the Swiss Open, suggesting a tangible edge in conditions that favour his baseline style [1]. His 2026 Grand Slam results include a third-round appearance at the French Open and a first-round exit at Wimbledon, indicating consistent form on clay but vulnerability on grass [6].

Historically, matches between players with a 15–20 ranking gap on clay have resolved close to the implied probability when the lower-ranked player lacks recent top-50 wins; Collignon’s 2025 clay record of 9/3 on hard courts and 0/1 on clay suggests some inconsistency, yet his overall clay dominance remains the primary line-mover [1]. Comparable cases from Gstaad and Lugano in recent years show that home-surface specialists with sub-60% recent form still win 55–60% of matches when ranked above 50, aligning with the current 56% crowd-implied probability.

Traders should monitor Collignon’s pre-match fitness announcement and any late entry changes for Vacherot, as the Swiss Open has seen two withdrawals in the last three days due to minor injuries [2]. The match’s resolution depends on completion within seven days of 17 July; any delay beyond 24 July triggers a 50–50 settlement. Collignon’s recent 0–2 loss on 20 May and 2–1 win on 17 May indicate fluctuating form, making his clay-court pedigree the decisive factor [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Valentin Vacherot. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.