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US Open, Qualification ATP: Maks Kasnikowski vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

How the prediction market is pricing "US Open, Qualification ATP: Maks Kasnikowski vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Completed Match 100% US Open, Qualification ATP: Maks Kasnikowski vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Set 1 O/U 8.5 100% US Open, Qualification ATP: Maks Kasnikowski vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Set 2 Winner 100% US Open, Qualification ATP: Maks Kasnikowski vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Total Sets: O/U 2.5 100% Volume: $120K Liquidity: $601K Closes: 1 Sept 2026
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US Open, Qualification ATP: Maks Kasnikowski vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Completed Match100%
US Open, Qualification ATP: Maks Kasnikowski vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Set 1 O/U 8.5100%
US Open, Qualification ATP: Maks Kasnikowski vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Set 2 Winner100%
US Open, Qualification ATP: Maks Kasnikowski vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Total Sets: O/U 2.5100%
US Open, Qualification ATP: Maks Kasnikowski vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Set 1 O/U 9.5100%
US Open, Qualification ATP: Maks Kasnikowski vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Match O/U 21.5100%
US Open, Qualification ATP: Maks Kasnikowski vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Set 2 O/U 8.5100%
US Open, Qualification ATP: Maks Kasnikowski vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Set 1 O/U 10.5100%
US Open, Qualification ATP: Maks Kasnikowski vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Match O/U 22.5100%
US Open, Qualification ATP: Maks Kasnikowski vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Set 2 O/U 9.5100%
US Open, Qualification ATP: Maks Kasnikowski vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Match O/U 23.5100%
US Open, Qualification ATP: Maks Kasnikowski vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer0%
US Open, Qualification ATP: Maks Kasnikowski vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Set 1 Winner0%
US Open, Qualification ATP: Maks Kasnikowski vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Set Handicap +/-1.50%
US Open, Qualification ATP: Maks Kasnikowski vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Set Handicap +/-1.50%
US Open, Qualification ATP: Maks Kasnikowski vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Set 2 O/U 10.50%
US Open, Qualification ATP: Maks Kasnikowski vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Game Spread +/-2.50%

Market context

Market consensus: 100% chance of us open, qualification atp: maks kasnikowski vs nicolai budkov kjaer. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Maks Kasnikowski and Nicolai Budkov Kjaer in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 25, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. …

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for US Open, Qualification ATP: Maks Kasnikowski vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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Related Topics

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