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National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musetti

How the prediction market is pricing "National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musetti" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Completed Match 100% National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 1 O/U 8.5 100% National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 1 O/U 9.5 100% National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5 100% Volume: $122K Liquidity: $274K Closes: 13 Aug 2026
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National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musetti

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Completed Match100%
National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 1 O/U 8.5100%
National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 1 O/U 9.5100%
National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5100%
National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 1 O/U 10.5100%
National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musetti0%
National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 2 Winner0%
National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 1 Winner0%
National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.50%
National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 2 O/U 8.50%
National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musetti Total Sets: O/U 2.50%
National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musetti Match O/U 21.50%
National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 2 O/U 9.50%
National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musetti Match O/U 22.50%
National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 2 O/U 10.50%
National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musetti Match O/U 23.50%

Market context

National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musetti — current market-implied probability: 100%. This market refers to the tennis match between Nicolas Mejia and Lorenzo Musetti in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 6, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nicolas…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musetti. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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Related Topics

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