Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Almaty Open, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Almaty Open, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Almaty Open, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Almaty Open, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Almaty Open, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Almaty Open, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Almaty Open, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Almaty Open, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Almaty Open, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Game Spread +/-0.5 | 100% |
| Almaty Open, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Nikoloz Basilashvili | 0% |
| Almaty Open, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Almaty Open, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Almaty Open, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Almaty Open, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Almaty Open, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, almaty open, qualification: adam walton vs nikoloz basilashvili stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Adam Walton and Nikoloz Basilashvili in the Almaty Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Almaty Open, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Nikoloz Basilashvili. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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