Trump out as President by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump remains in office with no immediate indication of resignation or removal, which explains the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for him ceasing to be President by June 30, 2026. Historically, US presidents have rarely been removed before the end of their term; the only prior cases involved Andrew Johnson’s near-impeachment in 1868 and Richard Nixon’s resignation in 1974 amid the Watergate scandal, both driven by extraordinary constitutional crises rather than routine political shifts. For Trump, removal would require either a successful impeachment by Congress followed by Senate conviction—a process that has failed twice in his first term—or voluntary resignation, neither of which shows credible momentum as of mid-2026.

Traders should monitor the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections, as Trump himself has warned that a Republican loss could trigger impeachment efforts by Democrats. According to NBC News, Trump issued a stern warning to House Republicans that failure to secure the midterms would give Democrats a reason to impeach him, making the November 2026 election a critical catalyst. While Kalshi currently estimates impeachment odds at nearly 28.7% for his second term, this remains well below the threshold needed for removal, and no official investigation or formal impeachment vote has been announced. The settlement window ends in June 2026, meaning any impeachment process initiated after the midterms would likely fall outside the market’s resolution period unless it accelerates rapidly.

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Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Trump out as President by June 30?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.