Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump has already signed a preliminary memorandum of understanding with Iran electronically, with a formal in-person signing scheduled in Geneva this Friday to conclude hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This interim deal establishes a 60-day window for negotiations toward a final accord, mandating Iran’s pledge to eliminate its highly enriched uranium stockpile and refrain from developing nuclear weapons under strict IAEA oversight [1][3].

Historically, the probability of a specific individual signing a binding agreement where both the US and Iran are parties is low, given Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the JCPOA and the decades of mutual distrust that have stalled revival talks [2][5]. The current 3% crowd-implied probability reflects the market’s scepticism that this vague, one-and-a-half-page memorandum will evolve into a definitive written agreement by July 31, 2026, especially as Iran has criticised US proposals to ban onshore enrichment as unbalanced [6].

Traders must monitor the formal Geneva signing this Friday and the subsequent technical discussions on nuclear verification, which Vance confirmed will begin immediately [3]. The critical dependency is whether Iran fulfils its obligations to allow nuclear inspectors’ return and cease funding for terrorist organisations, as any easing of sanctions or release of frozen assets hinges on these actions [3]. Further details of the agreement are expected to be released shortly, which will clarify if the framework meets the market’s strict criteria for a qualifying written agreement [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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