Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 100% |
| Keir Starmer | 100% |
| Giorgia Meloni | 100% |
| Joseph Aoun | 100% |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 60% |
| Elon Musk | 14% |
| Mohammed bin Salman | 3% |
| Vladimir Putin | 1% |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 1% |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel | 1% |
| Kim Jong Un | 0% |
| Xi Jinping | 0% |
Market context
Donald Trump has already been meeting foreign leaders and high-profile figures in July, which matters because this market resolves on a single in-person encounter before month-end. Reuters reported on 5 July that Trump would meet Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy while in Turkey for the NATO summit, and a contemporaneous Trump travel log shows further July movement including North Dakota on 1 July, South Dakota on 3 July, and a later trip with bilateral meetings in Turkey[2][1].
That is the main historical guide for a 0% crowd price: these markets can move sharply on announced travel or scheduled summits, but they still require the named person to be in the same place as Trump and actually interact with him. Recent July examples show how quickly an appearance can turn into a qualifying meeting when it is attached to a formal event, such as the NATO summit, while other public stops do not create that same probability unless the counterpart is specifically present[5][2][1].
For the rest of July, traders should watch for any White House, campaign, or foreign-trip scheduling releases that name a counterpart and a venue, because those are the clearest catalysts for a Yes outcome. Axios also reported that Benjamin Netanyahu could visit Washington as early as the week after Trump returned from the NATO trip, which would be a live route to resolution if it actually happens; absent a confirmed diary entry or credible travel reporting, the market remains reliant on late-breaking announcements rather than routine presidential activity[4][2].
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Who will Trump meet with in July?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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