Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Sam Bankman-Fried has formally petitioned President Donald Trump for a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve, yet Trump explicitly ruled out granting clemency to the FTX founder in a January 2026 New York Times interview, stating he has no intention of pardoning several well-known individuals including Bankman-Fried[1][6]. This direct rejection from the President, combined with the White House’s refusal to comment on the matter, creates a formidable barrier to the market resolving as "Yes" by the July 31 deadline[1].

Historically, presidential pardons are rare and typically reserved for cases with significant political alignment or humanitarian grounds, such as the recent pardon of former Rep. Stephen Buyer for insider trading, which occurred just weeks before Bankman-Fried’s application[2]. During his second term, Trump has granted over 1,400 pardons and commutations, yet the vast majority—more than 1,200 cases—relate to January 6 events, leaving little precedent for pardoning high-profile financial fraudsters who were major Democratic donors[1][10]. The current 3% crowd-implied probability reflects this stark historical reality and the President’s stated opposition.

Traders must monitor any official updates from the Department of Justice’s Pardon Attorney Office regarding the status of Bankman-Fried’s petition, as well as any sudden shifts in Trump’s public stance or legal developments in Bankman-Fried’s ongoing appeal[3]. Crucially, the market will resolve to "No" immediately if it becomes impossible for Trump to issue a federal pardon within the timeframe, a scenario that could materialise if political or legal constraints prevent the action before the settlement window closes[1]. No recent news source has indicated a change in Trump’s position, reinforcing the low probability of a successful outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.