Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %

Platform comparison

Market context

The Clacton by-election is the real-world event behind this market, and the vote-share band for Count Binface is being shaped by whether his protest-candidate profile converts into a materially higher tally than in his previous contests. His track record is small but consistent: 1.0% in the 2021 and 2024 London mayoral elections, 0.6% in the 2023 Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election, 0.6% in Richmond and Northallerton in 2024, and 0.2% in Makerfield earlier in 2026.[9]

The cleanest comparison is the August Clacton polling. Survation’s constituency poll put Farage on 73% and Binface on 20%, with Binface rising to 21% in the combined weighting and to 31% in a forced two-way race; the same polling was cited by several outlets and has become the main anchor for trader expectations.[8][11][4] That makes sub-10% look materially below the latest polling baseline, while 10–20% and 20–30% both remain live if the by-election runs closer to the survey than to Binface’s historic low single-digit results.[3][2]

For traders, the key catalysts are the published candidate list, turnout signalling, and whether the final contest remains crowded or effectively polarises around Farage and Binface. Recent coverage has highlighted a long ballot and a large field of independents, which matters because fragmentation can either dilute Binface’s protest vote or, if the mainstream vote stays split, leave his polling share broadly intact.[3][10][4] The market also depends on the official declaration being known by the settlement window; if the result were not definitively reported by 30 June 2027, it would resolve to the lowest bracket.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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