Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Platform comparison

Market context

Global temperatures in 2026 are projected to settle as the fourth hottest year since 1850, following a cooling shift driven by the ongoing La Niña pattern that has suppressed ocean heat compared to the record-breaking 2023 and 2024. Berkeley Earth’s latest analysis estimates a 51% probability for this fourth-place ranking, with only a 10% chance of 2026 claiming the top spot, suggesting the current 34% crowd-implied probability for a top-three finish is slightly inflated against the prevailing cooling trend [1]. Historical data confirms 2025 as the third warmest year, meaning 2026 must significantly exceed recent anomalies to break into the top three, a scenario deemed unlikely given the natural oceanic cooling patterns now in effect [1][3].

Traders should monitor monthly global surface temperature reports from NOAA and Copernicus, particularly for June and July, as these months will determine if the La Niña cooling persists or if a sudden shift occurs. Recent data shows January 2026 was the fifth-warmest January on record, while May 2026 registered as the second-highest monthly temperature in 177 years, creating a volatile signal that requires careful weighting of monthly anomalies against the annual average [2][8]. The primary dependency remains the persistence of La Niña; if this pattern weakens unexpectedly, the probability of a higher rank could rise, though current models suggest 2026 will stay cooler than the previous two years [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.