Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol’s top temperature on 31 July is usually a modest summer number rather than a heatwave extreme, with July averages for Amsterdam clustering around 22°C highs and the month’s long-run profile generally sitting in the low 20s Celsius. Historical summaries of Amsterdam weather put the July average high at about 22°C to 23°C, and a typical 31 July high around 24°C, which helps explain why the market’s crowd-implied 0% for a high-end outcome remains anchored to climatology rather than any singular event.[1][5][8][13]

The reference point for this market is the airport station reading, not city-centre conditions, so the key comparison is whether Schiphol can briefly overshoot its normal summer range. Amsterdam’s all-time July heat in recent climate summaries has reached the mid-30s Celsius, including 36.4°C in July 2019, while Dutch national records are higher still; that means the theoretical upside is large, but outcomes in the upper 20s or low 30s are the more relevant stress case for traders rather than an outright record-breaker.[12][15] The fact that the settlement source is a single daily high from Wunderground also matters: one brief spike in the afternoon is enough to determine the result.[Market description]

The main catalysts are the day’s synoptic setup, cloud cover, wind direction and the timing of any showers or thunder, because a shallow marine layer or afternoon convective cloud can cap the airport’s maximum even when nearby areas feel warmer. Recent Amsterdam forecasts around late July have often shown highs in the mid-to-high 20s Celsius with breezy south-westerlies and some drizzle risk, which is the sort of pattern that keeps the daily maximum close to the average rather than pushing it into exceptional territory.[4][20] For this market, the practical watchlist is whether updated forecasts trend hotter and sunnier into the afternoon or whether cloud and onshore flow arrive early enough to suppress the peak.[4][20]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

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How fast do sports winnings settle?

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.