Highest temperature in Beijing on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, the Beijing Capital International Airport Station will record its peak temperature for the day, with the market betting on whether this figure exceeds a specific threshold. Historical data confirms July as Beijing’s hottest month, averaging 31°C with frequent spikes above 33°C, while recent forecasts for July 2026 project daily highs between 84°F and 91°F (29°C–33°C) [1][6][7]. The current 97% YES probability aligns with these norms, as temperatures below 27°C are exceptionally rare in mid-summer; Polymarket data shows only a 39% chance for outcomes ≤27°C, reinforcing that the market correctly prices the likelihood of a warm day [2][10].

Traders must monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, particularly for afternoon heavy rain or cloud cover that could suppress temperatures [9]. While July typically sees dry, humid heat, the forecast for 10 July includes heavy rain in the afternoon, a potential catalyst that could lower the peak temperature below expectations [9]. No official weather service announcements have yet confirmed a temperature anomaly, but sudden shifts in precipitation patterns—common in Beijing’s summer—could alter the outcome. Watch Wunderground’s hourly logs closely as the settlement window closes, as even brief rain events may cap the day’s maximum [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Beijing on July 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.