Highest temperature in Beijing on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing faces its peak summer heat on 16 July 2026, with the Beijing Capital International Airport Station set to record the day’s highest temperature in degrees Celsius. The market currently assigns a 0% probability to any outcome below 33°C, reflecting strong consensus that temperatures will breach typical July averages. Historical data shows Beijing’s July highs usually range between 23°C and 31°C, though spikes to 35°C are not uncommon during humid, rain-interrupted periods [2].

Recent market activity suggests 33°C is the frontrunner at 39%, with 34°C trailing at 27%, indicating traders expect a hot but not extreme day [1]. This aligns with climatic patterns where July is one of Beijing’s wettest months, averaging 185 mm of rainfall and 13 rainy days, often bringing afternoon thunderstorms that can temporarily suppress peak temperatures [2]. The 0% crowd-implied probability for lower ranges implies confidence that humidity and solar intensity will push readings above the monthly mean.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s real-time hourly updates for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, as resolution depends solely on the highest recorded temperature for the day [1]. Any sudden shift in cloud cover, wind direction, or precipitation intensity could alter the peak reading. While no specific weather announcements are pending, the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 16 July 2026, making late-morning data critical for final positioning.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Beijing on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.