Highest temperature in Beijing on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 21 July 2026 will be measured at Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. July is firmly within Beijing's summer peak, when daily highs routinely exceed 30°C. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning the resolution will capture the maximum temperature recorded across the full calendar day at that specific monitoring station.

Historical July records for Beijing show considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, peak temperatures on mid-to-late July dates ranged from 29°C to 37°C, with an average around 33–34°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a calibration exercise. Comparable dates in adjacent years provide the most reliable baseline: 21 July 2023 recorded 34°C, whilst 21 July 2022 reached 32°C. El Niño and La Niña patterns influence East Asian summer temperatures, though their strength and timing remain uncertain this far ahead.

Traders should monitor seasonal climate outlooks released by China's National Climate Centre in spring 2026, which typically forecast summer temperature anomalies three months in advance. Any major atmospheric circulation shifts—such as persistent high-pressure systems or unusual monsoon behaviour—would shift the distribution meaningfully. Real-time forecasts become actionable only in early July, when meteorological models gain accuracy within the 10–14 day window.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Beijing on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.