Highest temperature in Beijing on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the daily peak temperature at Beijing Capital International Airport on 5 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved via Wunderground data. Despite the crowd-implied probability of 0% for a “YES” outcome (likely misframed as a binary threshold), the market actually assigns significant weight to specific ranges: 32°C at 31% and 33°C at 26%, with 30°C priced at 36% [1][3]. This contradicts any notion that extreme heat is impossible; historical data shows Beijing’s July highs average 88°F (31.1°C), rarely dipping below 78°F (25.6°C) or exceeding 96°F (35.6°C) [2]. In 2023, the month peaked at 40°C, and on 5 July 2010, the station recorded 42.1°C—proving that temperatures above 30°C are not anomalies but typical for this date [5][8].

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s live hourly updates as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 5 July, since the resolution depends solely on the highest recorded temperature for *any* time that day [10]. No new weather announcements or forecasts are expected to alter the line, as July 5 falls within Beijing’s reliably hot growing season with minimal cloud cover [2]. However, traders must verify whether the Wunderground feed for ZBAA (Beijing Capital Intl) is active and consistent with national meteorological records, as discrepancies in station data could skew resolution [4]. Recent reports confirm China experienced its hottest month in recent history in July 2024, with average temperatures of 23.21°C, reinforcing the trend of escalating summer heat [6]. Given this context, the 0% “YES” probability appears to reflect a misinterpretation of the market’s binary framing rather than actual climatic impossibility.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Beijing on July 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.