Highest temperature in Beijing on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing is currently experiencing a scorching heatwave, with temperatures on 6 July 2026 already climbing past 40°C at the southern suburb observatory, a figure that directly contradicts the market’s 0% probability for a YES outcome in the highest temperature range. Historical data confirms that July is Beijing’s hottest month, with daily highs averaging 88°F (31.1°C) and rarely dipping below 78°F (25.6°C) or exceeding 96°F (35.6°C)[1]. The all-time recorded high for Beijing stands at 41.9°C on 24 July 1999, while recent years have seen extremes reaching 40°C in 2023, reinforcing that temperatures above 30°C are not anomalies but seasonal norms[5][6].

Traders must monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, as the market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at this specific location, not the southern suburb observatory where 40.1°C was logged[2]. Although a remote Xinjiang township recorded 52.2°C in 2023, such extremes are geographically isolated and unlikely to affect Beijing’s urban climate[3]. The key catalyst is the official Wunderground dataset, which will be released after the settlement window closes; any discrepancy between the southern suburb and airport readings could shift the resolution, making the airport’s specific microclimate the critical dependency for this market’s outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Beijing on July 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.