Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu will experience peak summer heat on 14 August 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Shuangliu International Airport Station determining the market outcome. August represents the tail end of Chengdu's monsoon season, though precipitation typically declines through mid-month as the region transitions toward autumn patterns. The city's inland location in Sichuan Province means daytime temperatures regularly exceed 30°C during this period, with occasional peaks into the mid-to-high 30s Celsius depending on atmospheric conditions and cloud cover.

Historical August data from Chengdu shows considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, recorded highs on mid-August dates ranged from 28°C to 37°C, reflecting the influence of monsoon remnants and occasional high-pressure systems pushing northward from the South China Sea. The 0% implied probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool day or uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve. Recent climatological trends indicate Chengdu's August temperatures have drifted slightly warmer over the past decade, though single-day extremes remain difficult to predict with precision more than eighteen months in advance.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts beginning in late July 2026, particularly indices tracking the East Asian summer monsoon intensity and any tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific that could influence moisture transport into central China. The resolution methodology specifies Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, making data source consistency critical—discrepancies between observation stations or reporting methods could affect settlement.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.