Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s airport is expected to be warm enough that the market is really about how high the daytime peak gets, not whether the day is hot at all. Several August outlooks for Chengdu point to highs in the low 30s Celsius on 3 August, with forecasts around **33°C** and only modest rainfall risk, which puts the current 0% YES price well below the broad weather expectation for the day.[1][2][5][14]

The historical frame is straightforward: August in Chengdu is typically hot, humid and regularly in the **30–34°C** range, with some forecasts and travel guides noting occasional spikes above **35°C** in the city and nearby areas.[5][8][12][16] That makes lower temperature bands less plausible unless cloud cover or rain suppresses heating, but the present forecasts do not currently show a strong cooling signal.[1][2][11] For traders, the key watchpoints are any updated morning-to-afternoon forecast shifts, especially changes in cloud cover, precipitation timing and humidity at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, because the market settles on the **highest observed airport temperature** on the day rather than a city average or overnight reading.[1][7][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.