Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s airport temperature on 4 August is being priced off a city that is typically hot, humid and rain-prone in early August. Forecast summaries for Chengdu on that date cluster around a daytime high of about 31–32°C, with patchy rain possible and around 6.3 mm of precipitation, while longer-run August guidance puts typical highs near 30–32°C and notes that rare sunny spells can push temperatures higher.[1][2][3][7]

That context makes the current 0% YES price look anchored to the idea that only an unusually hot afternoon would clear the relevant threshold once the airport observation is final. Historical August averages for Chengdu show highs around 30°C, but comparable guides also cite individual 4 August highs around 32.1°C and report that the city can briefly reach 34–35°C when rain holds off and humidity traps heat.[3][5][11][17] For traders, the key variable is whether the day follows the usual cloudy, showery pattern or instead gets a stronger solar break and suppressed rainfall, which is the main route to a higher terminal reading.[3][5][13]

The main catalysts are the short-range model updates, the timing and extent of morning cloud and any afternoon convection, and whether rain arrives early enough to cap the peak before local mid-afternoon heating. Chengdu’s current observations already show warm, humid conditions, and official-style forecasts for the city still point to a high-20s to low-30s Celsius outcome with rain chances in the mix, so the market should move most on revisions that either extend the wet window or open up a sunnier heating cycle.[8][9][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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