Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 6 August will be decided by how much heat builds before any afternoon rain arrives. Chengdu is in its muggiest stretch in August, with long-run guides putting typical daytime highs around 30°C and describing the month as hot, humid and often rainy rather than persistently clear.[1][6][15]

That backdrop makes the current 0% implied probability look hard to defend on climatology alone. Historical August readings for Chengdu show highs commonly in the high-20s to low-30s °C, with 6 August itself averaging 29.2°C in one compiled set, while another source pegs daily highs around 30°C for the month and notes occasional spikes towards the mid-30s in broader city forecasts.[1][5][6] A market resolving to a band that captures the day’s maximum is therefore more naturally aligned with normal August outcomes than with an extreme cold or extreme heat tail.

The key catalysts are the day’s airport observation pattern, cloud cover and rainfall timing, because a wet morning or early thunderstorm can cap the top reading, while a dry, sunny start can still allow a late push towards the low-30s before showers arrive.[3][4][9] A Chinese cities weather bulletin issued the previous day put Chengdu at 21°C to 35°C with rain, reinforcing the idea that the ceiling is weather-dependent rather than fixed by season.[9] Traders should watch for any updated airport-specific forecast and the first few observation hours on Wunderground, since the final high is taken from the Chengdu Shuangliu station rather than a city-wide average.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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