Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu is experiencing its peak summer heat today, with the city’s July climate routinely producing daytime highs between 29°C and 37°C, occasionally climbing to 38°C. The settlement window for this weather market closes at noon UTC on 11 July 2026, capturing the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders believe the day’s peak will fall outside the specific range offered, despite historical data confirming July as one of Chengdu’s hottest months, with some days reaching 38°C (100°F) [4][6].

Historical patterns show Chengdu’s highest average July temperature occurs on 25 July at 31°C, while early July tends cooler, with 2 July marking the month’s coldest minimum at 22°C [8]. However, daily highs in mid-July typically hover around 30–35°C, rarely exceeding 37°C unless under exceptional heatwave conditions [4]. The current RealFeel® temperature at Shuangliu Airport is 44°C (120°F), classified as “Very Dangerous Heat,” driven by 44% humidity, minimal cloud cover, and a UV index of 11 [5]. This extreme real-time reading contrasts with the 0% market probability, implying the specified range may be set above likely outcomes.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s hourly updates for ZUUU (Chengdu Shuangliu) throughout the morning, as the official resolution source relies on its recorded daily maximum [1]. Any sudden shift in cloud cover, rain showers, or humidity could suppress the peak temperature below the market’s threshold. AccuWeather’s July 2026 forecast for the airport indicates daily highs between 28°C and 32°C (82°–89°F), reinforcing skepticism about a higher outcome [2]. With 20 rainy days typical in July and 188mm of expected rainfall, a brief shower before noon could easily cap the temperature, validating the current 0% stance.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.