Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu is experiencing a heatwave on 13 July 2026, with current forecasts predicting a peak of 99°F (37.2°C) and afternoon showers that may briefly moderate the heat before temperatures rebound [4]. The resolution source, Wunderground, will record the highest temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, where aviation observations confirm warm, clear conditions persisting through the morning [3][5]. Despite the crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific high-temperature range, early-July data shows frequent readings between 34–36°C under similar atmospheric setups, suggesting the market may be underpricing the likelihood of extreme heat [2].

Historical July climatology for Chengdu typically centres on 30–32°C, but recent anomalies have pushed daily highs into the 34–36°C range, with 38°C emerging as the market’s frontrunner at 34% probability [2]. The 0% probability assigned to the current outcome likely reflects a misalignment between crowd sentiment and the observed heatwave intensity, as comparable cases in early July 2026 demonstrate consistent warmth well above the seasonal average [1]. Traders should watch for updates on the timing and intensity of afternoon showers, which could either suppress the peak temperature or, if delayed, allow it to climb further toward 38°C [4].

Key catalysts include real-time METAR updates from ZUUU and Wunderground’s hourly temperature logs, which will determine the final settlement value [3][5]. Any sudden shift in cloud cover or precipitation timing could alter the peak temperature by several degrees, making the 37–38°C range the critical zone to monitor [2]. With the settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC on 13 July, the next few hours of weather data will be decisive in confirming whether the heatwave sustains or breaks.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.