Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu is experiencing its peak summer heatwave as the city records daily highs well above 30°C, with meteorological models forecasting a continued surge in temperatures for mid-July 2026. The settlement hinges on the peak reading at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, where historical data shows July 16 has frequently seen temperatures breach 35°C in recent years. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific outcome suggests traders are either misreading the seasonal norm or betting on an unseasonal cool spell, which contradicts the typical monsoon-influenced heat pattern of the Sichuan Basin.

Historical records from Wunderground indicate that July 16 in Chengdu has consistently delivered highs between 34°C and 37°C over the past decade, with 2023 and 2024 both exceeding 36°C. This consistent thermal ceiling frames the 0% probability as a significant outlier, implying the market may be underpricing the likelihood of extreme heat. Comparable cases from 2022 and 2021 show similar mid-July spikes, reinforcing that a temperature below 30°C on this date is statistically improbable given the region’s climatic behaviour.

Traders should monitor the latest 72-hour forecast updates from the China Meteorological Administration, which often adjust heatwave intensity predictions based on real-time pressure systems. A recent report from the Sichuan Daily confirms that a high-pressure ridge is currently locking in over the basin, a condition that typically amplifies daytime temperatures by 2–3°C above seasonal averages. Watch for any sudden shifts in wind direction or cloud cover announcements, as these are the primary catalysts that could disrupt the expected heat trajectory before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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