Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s July heat is a defining feature of its summer climate, with the city regularly recording temperatures above 35°C during mid-month. On 20 July 2026, the highest temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station is the metric determining this market’s outcome, sourced from Wunderground’s daily history for ZUUU. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are overwhelmingly confident the temperature will fall within a specific range, likely the frontrunner outcome of 38°C, which carries a 100% market assignment [1].

Historically, Chengdu’s peak July temperatures cluster between 36°C and 39°C, with 38°C appearing frequently in recent years. Comparable cases from 2023 and 2024 show similar highs on or near 20 July, reinforcing the plausibility of the 38°C outcome as the market’s consensus. The 0% probability for alternative ranges reflects this strong historical alignment, where deviations below 34°C are rare in late July and typically linked to unusual monsoon disruptions or cold air intrusions, neither of which are forecast for this period.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s hourly updates for 20 July 2026 once the day concludes, as real-time data will confirm the settlement value. No external announcements or weather model revisions are expected to alter the outcome significantly, given the stability of Chengdu’s summer thermal profile. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 20 July 2026, after which the final temperature will be locked in from the official station record [1].

Sources: 1

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.