Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s airport weather on 27 July is a straight temperature market: the settlement uses the day’s *highest* reading at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, so the key question is whether the afternoon warms enough to land inside the chosen Celsius band. Current public forecasts are not especially benign for heat traders, with one forecast calling for a cloudy high of 37°C and another showing a hot July pattern with daytime highs typically between 29°C and 37°C in Chengdu.[2][4]

Historically, July in Chengdu is the city’s hottest and wettest period, with average highs around 30°C and occasional peaks reaching 39°C during the midday-to-evening heat window.[4] That makes a 0% implied probability on the YES side look detached from the local climate profile unless the market is tied to a very specific, high threshold band. The main comparable cases to watch are overcast, rainy days that cap the airport maximum in the low 30s, versus clearer spells that allow the city to push into the mid-to-high 30s.[1][4]

The main catalysts are the next forecast updates and whether showers arrive early enough to blunt afternoon heating, because Chengdu July weather is humid, rainy and changeable rather than one-directional.[1][4][7] If the cloud cover persists, the ceiling shifts down quickly; if it clears around lunchtime, the airport can still post a much stronger high. Traders should also watch for any late revision in the local forecast from Chinese weather services, since the market resolves on the airport station’s actual daily maximum, not the city-wide average.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 27?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.