Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing will experience its peak summer heat on 2 July 2026, with the Jiangbei International Airport Station recording the day’s highest temperature in degrees Celsius. July and August are the hottest months in the region, averaging around 33°C, while daytime highs frequently reach 43°C due to intense humidity and the urban heat island effect[1][2]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a specific temperature range appears misaligned with historical records, as temperatures in Chongqing during early July consistently exceed 35°C, often feeling like 43°C even after sunset[3][5]. Comparable cases from recent years show that early July routinely delivers extreme heat, making any prediction below 30°C statistically improbable and suggesting the market may be underpricing the likelihood of higher thresholds[4].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, for hourly temperature spikes that could shift the outcome[7]. Key catalysts include sudden changes in cloud cover or wind patterns, which can temporarily suppress peak readings, as well as announcements of local weather advisories that might indicate extreme conditions[3]. Recent climate data confirms that the 10-day period from 21–31 July delivers the highest average highs at 29.3°C, but early July often exceeds this due to pre-summer intensity[7]. No major suspensions or injuries affect the weather, but traders must watch for unexpected precipitation events, which are rare in July but could alter the temperature trajectory if they occur[2]. The market’s current form suggests a need for recalibration based on these dependencies.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 2?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.