Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing’s late-July heat is typically severe, with July averages around 33°C for daytime highs and a rainy, humid monsoon pattern rather than a dry heat regime.[1][2] That backdrop matters because a market on the *highest* temperature at Jiangbei Airport is usually driven by whether the city reaches its usual summer ceiling or gets capped by cloud, showers, or storm timing; comparable July climate guides put typical daytime peaks in the mid-30s Celsius, with occasional hotter spells into the high-30s.[4][5]

The 0% crowd price on the event being a cooler reading implies traders are treating the hot-end outcomes as the base case, which is consistent with the broader seasonal profile rather than any single day’s weather.[1][2] The main historical reference point is that Chongqing’s July climate is persistently hot and wet, so the market’s real sensitivity is to short-lived changes in sunshine and convection, not to long-range seasonal norms.[1][4] Current venue-level history is the key comparator, because the settlement uses the airport station rather than the city average.[6]

For traders, the main catalysts are the day-of weather evolution and any shift in rain timing, cloud cover, or thunderstorm development, since those can shave several degrees off the afternoon high even in a hot airmass.[1][2] The resolution source is Wunderground’s daily history for Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport, so the only final number that matters is the station’s highest recorded temperature on the day; until then, the market will track whether the airport stays under strong afternoon insolation or gets limited by showers and storm cells.[6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 27?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.