Highest temperature in Dallas on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas is expected to hit a high of 95°F on 12 July 2026, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms disrupting the heat at Love Field [2]. This forecast aligns with the market’s current frontrunner of 94–95°F, which holds a 39% implied probability, while the 92–93°F range sits at 28% [1]. The 0% YES probability for the lowest tier reflects the region’s typical July intensity, where daily highs routinely reach 96–102°F [4].

Historical data from recent July days in Dallas shows consistent heat, with 10 July 2026 locking in at 98–99°F with 100% market certainty [3]. Even on cooler days, temperatures rarely dip below 93°F, as seen in the 6 July market where the official high settled well below 93°F [10]. The current 0% probability for the lowest range is therefore grounded in a pattern of sustained high temperatures, making a sub-90°F outcome highly improbable given the seasonal baseline.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s hourly updates for Love Field, particularly the timing and intensity of the predicted thunderstorms, which could suppress peak temperatures [2]. Any sudden shift in cloud cover or precipitation timing before midday could alter the high, though the 94–95°F range remains the most likely outcome based on current models and historical consistency [1][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Dallas on July 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.