Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 92-93°F | 100% |
| 77°F or below | 0% |
| 78-79°F | 0% |
| 80-81°F | 0% |
| 82-83°F | 0% |
| 84-85°F | 0% |
| 86-87°F | 0% |
| 88-89°F | 0% |
| 90-91°F | 0% |
| 94-95°F | 0% |
| 96°F or higher | 0% |
Market context
Dallas will record its highest temperature on 13 July 2026, measured at Love Field Station. The settlement hinges on the single daily maximum registered across all hours, with resolution sourced from Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific location and date.
July temperatures in Dallas typically range between 92°F and 98°F as daily highs, though extremes above 100°F occur roughly once per decade during particularly intense heat waves. Historical precedent shows that mid-July readings in the 95–97°F band represent the modal outcome across most years. The current 0% probability assigned to any single temperature range suggests the market may be awaiting clarification on which specific ranges are available for settlement, or reflects early-stage liquidity before traders establish positions based on seasonal norms and longer-range forecasting models.
Traders should monitor the National Weather Service Dallas/Fort Worth office for any heat advisories or excessive heat watches issued in early July 2026, which would signal atmospheric conditions favouring above-normal temperatures. Longer-range climate patterns—including sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and upper-level ridge positioning—typically become predictable 10–14 days ahead. The settlement window closes at midday on 13 July, meaning real-time observations from Love Field will determine the outcome once the day concludes.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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