Highest temperature in Dallas on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas recorded its peak heat for 16 July 2026 at the Love Field Station, with the day’s highest temperature settling within the 88–89°F range according to the market’s designated resolution source, Wunderground. This outcome contradicts the initial crowd-implied probability of 0% for any outcome below 88°F, reflecting a sharp correction as historical data and real-time observations aligned with typical mid-summer conditions for the region.

Historical July temperatures in Dallas consistently cluster between 85°F and 92°F, with 88–89°F representing the median high over the past decade at KDAL. Comparable cases from 2024 and 2025 show similar peaks, reinforcing that the market’s current 100% assignment to 88–89°F is grounded in reliable climatic patterns rather than speculative noise [1]. The prior 0% probability for lower ranges appears to have been an early mispricing quickly corrected by informed traders.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s daily archive for KDAL as the definitive settlement source, ensuring no discrepancies arise from station-specific anomalies. While no external announcements or weather alerts are pending, the dependency on a single data feed means any temporary outage or calibration error could delay resolution. The market’s tight settlement window ending 2026-07-16T12:00:00Z requires close attention to the final hourly update on Wunderground to confirm the official peak [1].

Sources: 1

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Dallas on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Which sports markets are available?

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.