Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou’s highest temperature on 1 August is normally decided by a very warm, humid tropical-climate day rather than an extreme outlier, with August averages around 33°C and typical daily highs near 32-33°C in the city.[1][4][5] For the airport station specifically, the market should be read against a backdrop of frequent low-to-mid 30s Celsius summer heat, where a reading in that band would be fully in character rather than surprising.[18][20]

The current 0% implied probability on the top end is hard to reconcile with the climatology. Historical August data for Guangzhou show that the month can produce highs above 35°C, and one published August daily series includes several values in the 35-36°C range, with a peak of 36.2°C on a comparable date set.[4][20] That means traders should not treat the market as locked in by the early crowd view; if conditions stay hot and the airport station sees strong sunshine before cloud build-up or rain, the upside into the mid-30s Celsius remains plausible.[1][18]

The main catalysts are the day’s local weather evolution and any forecast shifts in rainfall or cloud cover, because Guangzhou in August is hot but also prone to heavy rain and high humidity.[13][18][20] Short-range forecasts around the date point to highs in the upper 80s to low 90s Fahrenheit, roughly 31-34°C, which supports a normal-to-warm outcome rather than a cool one.[10] For settlement, the key is the Wunderground Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station daily high, so late-morning heating, afternoon showers, and station-specific observations matter more than city averages.[12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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