Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou will record its highest temperature on 17 August 2026, measured at Baiyun International Airport Station and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. August sits firmly within Guangzhou's hottest season, when the city experiences subtropical summer conditions with high humidity and intense solar radiation. The resolution depends on the specific reading captured in the Daily Observations dataset rather than summary high-low figures, which occasionally diverge from granular station records.

Guangzhou's August temperatures have historically clustered between 32–35°C for daily highs over the past decade, with extreme readings occasionally reaching 36–37°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clarification on the exact temperature thresholds offered in the market's resolution brackets, or the upper-range options are priced prohibitively high relative to historical precedent. Comparable August days at Baiyun station show that temperatures exceeding 38°C remain statistically rare, occurring perhaps once every five to ten years under exceptional atmospheric conditions.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone activity and monsoon patterns in late July and early August 2026, as these systems can suppress temperatures or, conversely, create stagnant high-pressure domes that amplify heat. Real-time station data from Weather Underground becomes the critical reference point; any discrepancies between the Daily Observations table and the Day High & Low summary section will resolve in favour of the granular observations record. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 17 August, meaning traders have only until that point to assess final readings.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.