Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the resolution source drawn from Wunderground’s daily high data. Historically, July in Guangzhou is one of the hottest months, with average highs around 33°C (91°F) and extremes rarely falling below 29°C or exceeding 36°C [1][5]. Notably, the highest temperature ever recorded in Guangzhou on 1 July was 39.1°C, observed in 2004 [3]. Given that China experienced its hottest July on record in 2024, with average temperatures surpassing previous decades [2][6], the current 0% YES probability may reflect a conservative baseline that underestimates the potential for record-breaking heat in 2026.

Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts for the Pearl River Delta region, particularly any announcements of prolonged high-pressure systems or reduced cloud cover that could elevate temperatures beyond seasonal norms. Recent climate reports from Reuters confirm that China’s national average temperatures have been trending upward, with July 2024 marking a new peak [6]. Additionally, local meteorological updates from the China Meteorological Administration may provide early signals of extreme heat events. While no specific injury or suspension news applies to weather, the timing of monsoon activity and humidity levels—both critical in Guangzhou’s climate—will be key dependencies [7][8]. Any deviation from typical rainfall patterns could act as a catalyst for higher-than-expected temperatures.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.