Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou on 10 July 2026 will see its peak temperature recorded at the Baiyun International Airport Station, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that high. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a 36°C outcome appears starkly low given the city’s July climatology, where peak temperatures most frequently cluster between 34°C and 37°C[9]. Historical averages for July show daily highs hovering around 33°C (91°F), rarely dipping below 29°C or exceeding 36°C, with the highest average high reaching 33°C on 25 July[1][2]. Recent data confirms China experienced its hottest July on record since 1961, and Guangzhou specifically saw its longest summer season, pushing average temperatures to 23.3°C and extending summer days significantly[4][6].

Traders must monitor real-time Wunderground updates for the Baiyun Airport Station, as the resolution source is explicitly tied to the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day[7]. While the 0% probability suggests the crowd expects temperatures well below 36°C, the recent trend of record-breaking heat in southern China introduces a potent catalyst for upward deviation[4]. No official weather bureau forecast has been released for 10 July yet, but the absence of strong thunderstorms or heavy cloud cover in the past 24 hours (which saw 86°F with scattered clouds) could allow temperatures to climb toward the upper historical range[3]. Watch for any sudden announcements regarding extreme heat warnings or changes in local atmospheric pressure, as these dependencies directly influence the peak temperature outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.