Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou faces a mid-summer heatwave as the city records its peak daily temperature for 20 July 2026 at the Baiyun International Airport station, the specific metric determining this market’s outcome. The crowd-implied 0% probability for any “YES” outcome suggests traders believe the temperature will fall outside the defined resolution range, likely due to an expectation of unusually cool conditions or a data anomaly, despite July typically being one of the hottest months in southern China.

Historical data shows Guangzhou’s July highs consistently exceed 32°C, with recent years recording peaks between 34°C and 36°C at the Baiyun station [1]. A 0% probability is statistically anomalous for a summer date in this region unless the resolution range is set below 30°C, which would contradict five decades of climatic records. Comparable cases from 2023 and 2024 show no July day dipping below 31°C, framing the current pricing as a potential misalignment with seasonal norms rather than a genuine forecast of cold weather.

Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground updates for the Baiyun station, as the market resolves strictly on the highest recorded Celsius value for the day. Any deviation from the expected 34–36°C range would require an immediate weather event, such as heavy monsoon rain or fog, which current local reports indicate as present but not temperature-suppressing to extreme levels [1]. Watch for official meteorological bulletins from Guangdong’s weather bureau, which may clarify if the 0% pricing reflects a known station error or an unannounced cooling system activation at the airport.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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