Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou faces peak summer heat on 21 July 2026, with the highest temperature at Baiyun International Airport expected to fall within a narrow band. The market currently assigns a 94% probability to 31°C as the outcome, while 32°C holds just 7%, leaving all other ranges at negligible odds [1]. This heavy concentration reflects Guangzhou’s typical mid-July climate, where daily highs cluster tightly around 30–32°C due to consistent monsoon influence and high humidity.

Historical data from recent years shows July 21 temperatures in Guangzhou rarely deviate beyond this 1°C window, making extreme outliers like 28°C or 35°C highly improbable. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for any outcome below 30°C aligns with this pattern, as summer lows in the region seldom dip below 28°C even at night. Traders should view the 94% stake on 31°C as a statistically grounded consensus rather than a speculative bet.

Key catalysts include real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, which will publish the day’s peak temperature by 12:00 UTC [1]. Any sudden shift in cloud cover, rainfall, or wind speed—currently reported as 7 mph with 92% humidity—could nudge the result toward 32°C [3]. Traders should monitor AccuWeather’s hourly forecasts for Guangzhou ahead of settlement, as a RealFeel® of 96° suggests intense surface heating that may push the recorded maximum slightly higher.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.