Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Guangzhou is currently experiencing extreme heat and humidity as it sits under a strong subtropical high-pressure system, with June marking one of the wettest and most volatile months of the year. The market’s current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the highest temperature exceeding a specific threshold appears disconnected from historical reality, given that the city has recorded highs of 36.6°C in June, and recent May data showed temperatures reaching 36.3°C during a streak of continuous sunny days[1][5].

Historical patterns suggest that traders should treat the 0% probability as an outlier, as June in Guangzhou routinely features thunderstorms with heavy rain alongside scorching highs of 31°C or more, creating a volatile thermal environment where temperatures can spike rapidly after downpours[2][4]. The combination of high humidity, average rainfall of 280 mm, and occasional typhoons means that a single clear day could push temperatures well above the implied range, making the current pricing highly susceptible to revision[1].

Key catalysts to monitor include real-time updates from Wunderground for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, which serves as the official resolution source, alongside any sudden shifts in local weather forecasts indicating prolonged sunny spells or typhoon activity[7]. Traders should also watch for announcements regarding typhoon warnings or heavy storm forecasts, as these dependencies can drastically alter the thermal profile of the day, potentially invalidating the current 0% probability if conditions turn unusually clear and hot[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.