Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 1 August will be resolved from the Observatory’s “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” in its Daily Extract, once the figure is published and finalised.[16] Hong Kong’s August climate is typically hot enough that the upper end of the distribution is well above 30°C: the 1991–2020 normal for 1 August shows a mean maximum of 31.6°C, while July–September are the city’s hottest months overall.[1][14]

That makes the current **0% YES** pricing look detached from the climate baseline rather than from an extreme-weather case. Recent HKO monthly write-ups show that August maxima can still run materially above normal when persistent anticyclones dominate, with the Observatory reaching 35.4°C on 5 August 2024 and 34.4°C on 10 August 2025.[7][15] In that context, a settlement in a range tied to the day’s top reading is usually driven by whether afternoon heating is capped by cloud, showers or onshore flow, not by whether Hong Kong can get hot at all.[7][15]

For traders, the main catalysts are the morning and midday synoptic setup, plus any HKO tropical cyclone warnings, thunderstorm alerts or unusually strong rain bands that could suppress the afternoon peak. The Observatory’s current weather and the evolving August forecast are the practical inputs to watch, because a dry, sunny day can still push toward the low- to mid-30s, while unsettled conditions can leave the maximum much closer to the seasonal norm.[3][8][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.