Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s highest temperature on 4 August will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s final “Absolute Daily Max” reading, so the key question is whether the city reaches the low 30s or stays pinned nearer 29–30°C. Seasonal August norms are already warm and humid, with forecast services pointing to typical highs in the high 20s to low 30s, which helps explain why the market is clustered around 29°C and 30°C rather than any extreme outcome.[1][2][10]

The historical frame argues against treating 0% as a lock. Hong Kong has already delivered multiple 2026 heat spikes well above 34°C, including the year’s hottest day so far and another day when the Observatory hit 34°C while outlying districts went higher, showing that a sharp warm-up can still overpower the monthly average when sunshine and light winds line up.[4][5][9][11] That said, the current market favourite at 30°C, with 29°C close behind, suggests traders expect a more ordinary summer peak than a full heatwave, especially if showers or cloud limit afternoon heating.[2][14]

The main catalysts are the Observatory’s short-range forecast updates, any rainfall or thunderstorm signals, and the final daily extract published after the observation day, which is the only settlement source that matters here.[2][7][12] Traders will also watch whether clearing arrives early enough for stronger insolation, because even small changes in cloud cover or wind can decide whether Hong Kong tops out at 29°C, 30°C, or higher.[2][18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.