Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, Hong Kong will record its highest daily temperature for the month, a figure that determines the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns zero probability to any temperature above the lowest range. This event hinges on a single meteorological reading from the Hong Kong Observatory, captured as the absolute daily maximum in degrees Celsius, which will be finalized in the official Daily Extract after the settlement window closes.

Historically, July is Hong Kong’s hottest month, with average highs near 32°C (89°F) and record peaks reaching 35.7°C (96.3°F) in 2019[1]. Recent data shows daily highs in July 2026 ranging between 30°C and 34°C (86°F–93°F), with a recent peak of 33.1°C (91.6°F) on 24 June[2][3]. Given this consistent thermal pattern, the 0% crowd-implied probability appears misaligned with decades of climatological evidence, suggesting either a data lag or an underestimation of seasonal extremes.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s Daily Extract release, which typically occurs 4–7 days after the target date, and watch for any official weather bulletins indicating heatwave conditions or typhoon-related suppression[5]. A recent Earth.Org report confirms Hong Kong’s 2025 was its sixth-warmest year, with all 12 months warmer than average, reinforcing the likelihood of elevated July temperatures[7]. No scheduled weather disruptions or instrument recalibrations have been announced, meaning the reading will reflect natural atmospheric conditions unless a sudden monsoon shift intervenes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.