Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the daily maximum temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 3 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This single data point will determine which temperature range the prediction market resolves to, with the official figure appearing only after the “Daily Extract” is finalized.

Historically, Hong Kong’s July highs typically fall between 30°C and 35°C, with recent years showing a trend toward above-normal temperatures due to ENSO influences [2]. In July 2026, forecast models already indicate daily highs ranging from 30°C to 36°C (86°F to 96°F), with overnight lows between 26°C and 29°C [1]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific high suggests traders are either uncertain about the exact range or believe the market is mispriced relative to seasonal norms.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s “Daily Extract” release schedule, which finalises data shortly after midnight UTC on 4 July [5]. A key catalyst is the multi-model consensus forecast for the Pearl River Delta, which may shift if tropical activity intensifies over the weekend [9]. Recent news from the Observatory confirms normal-to-above-normal temperature expectations for July–September 2026, reinforcing the likelihood of a high near or above 34°C [2]. Any sudden drop in temperature, such as the weekend forecast of lows near 13°C in southern China, could alter the daily max significantly [6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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