Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 27?

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Market context

The underlying event is the daily maximum temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 27 June 2026, which will determine the settlement of a prediction market on Polymarket. Historical data shows Hong Kong’s June average high sits between 28°C and 32°C, with July and August typically hotter at around 32°C[2]. The seasonal forecast for June–August 2026 explicitly predicts above-normal temperatures for Hong Kong, reinforcing the likelihood of highs near or exceeding 30°C[3]. Current Polymarket odds assign a 67% probability to 30°C as the frontrunner, with 29°C at 21% and 31°C at 23.5%, contradicting the 0% crowd-implied probability for “YES” in the user’s query[1].

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s “Daily Extract” publication, which finalises the “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” for 27 June once data is confirmed[1]. The 9-day forecast issued on 27 June 2026 already shows a temperature range of 27–31°C, with sea surface temperatures at North Point reaching 26°C, suggesting sufficient thermal energy for a high near 30°C[4]. No recent news suspensions or injuries apply, as this is a weather-based market, but the key dependency is the official release of the Daily Extract, which may lag by several days post-date. The market cannot resolve until this data is published, making timing of the extract the critical catalyst for settlement[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 27? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.