Highest temperature in Houston on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s high temperature on 3 August will be determined by the top reading at William P. Hobby Airport, so the market is really about whether the city gets an ordinary August heat peak, a muted day, or a late-day spike from sun and subsidence. Recent Houston forecasts leaned hot: one local forecast called for another sunny, hot day with highs around 100°F, while another placed the day’s range roughly between 78°F and 99°F and kept precipitation chances low.[7][6]

The historical frame points towards a warm upper-90s outcome being more typical than a truly cool reading. August averages for Houston sit in the high 80s to around 90°F, and several recent daily outlooks have clustered highs in the mid- to upper-90s, with triple-digit readings appearing when sunshine dominates and storm coverage stays limited.[15][16][17] By contrast, the market’s current 0% yes price suggests traders are not yet seeing a clean route to an extreme heat outcome, likely because nearby showers and isolated storms have repeatedly shown up in the forecast discussion.[1][7][18]

What matters most now is the evolution of afternoon convection, cloud cover and any late changes to the temperature profile at Hobby. Local forecasts have highlighted a chance of isolated showers or storms along and south of I-10, while other updates have kept the broader area sunny and dry enough for highs near 100°F.[7][18] The resolution depends on the single highest observed temperature on the day, so even a short-lived late-afternoon surge can matter if the airport stays mostly clear through the heating window.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Houston on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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