Highest temperature in Houston on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston will experience its peak summer heat on 10 July 2026, with the William P. Hobby Airport station expected to record a daily high within the city’s typical July range of 85°F to 96°F. The crowd-implied 0% probability for any outcome suggests a market error or a misunderstanding of the resolution criteria, as historical data confirms July highs in Houston routinely exceed 90°F. Average July temperatures hover between 77°F and 96°F, with the normal high sitting at 93°F, making a failure to reach even the lowest defined range statistically improbable [3][4].

Historical extremes for July in Houston show the warmest recorded temperature was 88.0°F in 2022 at the IAH station, though this figure appears anomalously low compared to the 101°F record high for July 4 in 2009 and the 101°F historic high for the month overall [6][10]. More recent data from July 2025 shows a high of 90°F, aligning with the long-term average of 93.6°F, indicating that temperatures consistently fall within standard summer bands rather than dropping to unseasonable lows [1][7]. Traders should monitor the official Wunderground daily report for KHOU on the settlement date, as the market resolves strictly on the highest temperature recorded at that specific station, not regional averages [8]. No weather-related suspensions or line-up changes apply, but the primary dependency is the timely publication of the official daily maximum by Weather Underground, which serves as the sole resolution source.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Houston on July 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.