Highest temperature in Houston on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s peak heat on 15 July 2026 will be measured at William P. Hobby Airport, with the market currently pricing the 84–85°F range as the most likely outcome at 43%, while the 0% YES probability for any alternative implies the crowd expects temperatures to stay within the 82–89°F band rather than spike into triple digits [2]. Historical July peaks in Houston often hover near 98°F during active heatwaves, yet recent patterns show frequent moderation to the low-to-mid 80s when cloud cover or moisture intrudes, making the current 43% weighting on 84–85°F a plausible reflection of typical mid-month variability rather than an outlier [1].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily forecast updates for Houston, particularly any mentions of incoming cloud cover, sea-breeze strength, or precipitation chances that could suppress peak temperatures below 85°F, as these are the primary catalysts that would shift probability toward the 82–83°F range [1]. The settlement depends exclusively on Wunderground’s recorded high for KHOU on that date, so any discrepancy between forecast models and the actual station reading will determine the outcome, with no influence from nearby urban areas or alternative sensors [2].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Houston on July 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.