Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

Istanbul Airport’s peak temperature on 22 July will be judged against NOAA’s hourly readings, with the current market leaning heavily to **31°C** and a smaller tail on **32°C**. The key practical point is that the result is not about a daily average or a citywide high, but the single highest value recorded in the “Temp” column for that site on the day, so even a brief afternoon spike matters more than the rest of the profile. [1]

For context, late-July Istanbul typically sits close to the high-20s Celsius, with a July average daytime high around **29°C** and clear or mostly clear conditions common enough to allow sharper heating. That makes a low-30s outcome plausible without requiring an extreme heat event, and the market’s 90%/10% split implies traders see 31°C as the modal finish rather than a broad range of possibilities. [2][1]

The main catalysts are the next NOAA update for LTFM and whether the daytime warming trend pushes the airport one degree higher than the current favourite. Because the market cannot resolve until the following day’s first data point is published, late updates to the NOAA timeseries matter more than public forecasts once the afternoon temperature window has passed. [1]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 22?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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FAQ

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