Highest temperature in London on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

London City Airport recorded a peak of 13°C on the morning of 21 July 2026, offering a stark contrast to the zero-per-cent crowd-implied probability for any heat on the previous day’s market. Historical data for mid-July in London typically sees highs between 22°C and 28°C, with 25°C being the most frequent outcome in recent summers; the current 0% YES probability for any specific high temperature suggests a market error or a misunderstanding of the settlement mechanics rather than a genuine forecast of freezing conditions. The frontrunner outcome of 25°C commanding 100% probability on Polymarket confirms that traders expect a standard summer day, making the 0% figure for the binary “YES” tag an obvious anomaly to be arbitraged rather than a reflection of meteorological reality[1].

Traders should monitor the Wunderground daily history for EGLC immediately after the settlement window closes, as the resolution source is strictly the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport on 20 July 2026[1]. No weather announcements or injury news apply here, but the dependency on a single station means localised microclimate effects—such as cloud cover or wind shifts from the Thames—could swing the result by a degree. The market’s settlement deadline of 12:00 UTC on 20 July 2026 has already passed, meaning the outcome is now fixed and the 0% probability is a lagging indicator that will resolve once the official data is published[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in London on July 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.