Highest temperature in London on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 28 June 2026, London City Airport is experiencing a warm day with a current temperature of 25°C and a forecasted maximum daytime temperature of 26°C, under sunny intervals and a moderate breeze[4][5]. The settlement window for the prediction market closes at 12:00 UTC on 28 June 2026, meaning the market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day at the station[2].

Historical data shows that late June in London typically sees daily highs above 67°F (24°C), with the warm season running from 16 June to 8 September[7]. Comparable markets for 29 June 2026 show a 41% probability for 25°C and 27% for 26°C, suggesting that temperatures in this range are common for the period[1]. The current 0% YES probability for the market implies the crowd expects the highest temperature to fall outside the specific range being traded, likely due to the day’s already recorded 25°C and forecasted 26°C[2].

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground data release for the final daily maximum, as the market cannot resolve until the first data point for the date is published[2]. No weather-related suspensions or injuries apply here, but the key dependency is the timing of the data update from the resolution source. A recent Met Office update confirms the day’s high of 26°C, which may be the decisive factor in the final resolution[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in London on June 28?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.