Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 26?

Platform comparison

Market context

The temperature at Los Angeles International Airport on 26 July is the real-world trigger here, and the market is currently leaning to a fairly mild peak rather than an extreme heat spike. Crowd pricing is split almost evenly between **80–81°F** at 50% and **74–75°F** at 49%, which implies traders see only a narrow range of likely outcomes rather than a broad summer dispersal.[1]

That pricing is broadly consistent with the recent hourly forecast-style readout showing a **maximum of 29°C**, which converts to about **84°F**, for Los Angeles on 26 July.[2] In practical terms, a forecast in the low-to-mid 80s keeps the centre of gravity close to the market’s top two bands, while still leaving room for a slightly cooler airport reading if marine influence, morning cloud, or onshore flow cap the daily high at KLAX.

What matters most for traders is whether the airport station’s observed high tracks the broader Los Angeles forecast or comes in a little lower, as coastal airports often lag inland heat. The decisive updates are any late forecast revisions on temperature, cloud cover, and onshore wind timing, plus the actual Wunderground daily history entry once the day is complete, since the market resolves on the highest airport temperature recorded across the full day.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 26?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.